Global Warming: is it an issue or will it be more pleasant here at 53degrees north? Will it be goodbye to Lancashire west of Preston? Some simple stuff.
Global Warming is said to be caused by the increased concentration of the suns heat in the atmosphere as the level of certain gases increase. This effect can be simply created in a laboratory by heating a large container that is filled with different concentrations of gas.
There are several of these gases but Carbon Dioxide is the one most commonly quoted and it’s concentration has increased to just under 400 parts per million (ppm) an increase of about 30% in 50 years. This is known because records have been kept.
Data from much earlier times is obtained from the air trapped in samples of arctic ice that are drilled out like removing the core of an apple. The deeper the ice the older it is. Also rates of growth of plants like trees and from fossil data show how temperature changed in the past. The carbon and temperature data is compared to give a temperature v carbon chart.
For most of the time carbon remained below 300 ppm until relatively recently and tended to go as low as 200. It seems that cold periods coincide with low levels of carbon dioxide.
The last decade has seen several years of the hottest on record and this appears to align with the carbon increase.
Experiments can be wrong, the weather is a complicated beast and humans are relatively puny in world terms. But in terms of risk there does appear to be a good chance that the science has some substance and that if carbon dioxide continues to rise then temperatures will also rise.
Carbon worries can be supplemented by worries about the effects of increases in population. Also at this time large areas of forest are being cut down when we’ve always been told the Amazon forest provides the oxygen of the world. Very large countries like China and India are significantly increasing their resource demands and emissions of gases so the levels of carbon are expected to continue to increase. It is forecast that annual carbon emissions will increase by about 14% in the next 10 years and recent discussions were meant to reduce it by about 5% overall from that emitted now ( now 47bn tons a year, forecast 54bn tons, target 44bn tons).
The effects of increased temperature are already visible in the polar regions and on glaciers where the ice is retreating. Much of the ice is above the water and on land so more water is flowing into the sea and increasing its level. Heat is causing areas of desert like the Sahara to spread and causing famine in many countries. Increased temperatures were also said to have created larger than usual hurricanes in the Caribbean a couple of years ago and even if this was not global warming it is a warning of what increased temperature can do. There are a lot of forecasts about potential weather effects including a change to the Gulf Stream which will effect the UK perhaps making it colder. Although detailed forecasts are probably one of the most uncertain parts of the debate.
So is it worth spending money now to reduce gases, slow deforestation and it’s effects. Well I have several insurance and security measures at home and I’ve never seemed to need any of it. But they give me peace of mind and if they weren’t there I’d probably be sorry. In conclusion the science has so many credible aspects that, like an insurance policy, measures are worth taking to stabilise and reduce emissions. Otherwise it will be a gamble with the future of cities like London and New York and many other coastal regions including Lancashire west of Preston.