Today the IFS issued a report sponsored by two social welfare groups that concludes that by 2014 the very poorest will be hit hardest by the Coalition Budget.
The main issue seems to revolve around an outcome in 2014 which is a long way away. Predicting that far ahead in such detail is very difficult. The government claims their progressive forecast went to 2012 and their policies are to raise standards by getting people out of unemployment which will put different slant on the situation.
Other big points are that using CPI will have a big effect by 2014. It also says changes to housing benefits have a big impact. Although the main change appeared to be that excessive rent can’t be claimed so if that is a big contributor to the reports findings it is one brought in by popular request.
A simple stacked bar chart showing the contribution each budget change has brought to the poorest would be useful. Presenting a finished graph without seeing the working doesn’t satisfy curiosity enough to settle the issue.
Although the IFS have a strong reputation if you use certain assumptions and limit the range of data even the best analysis doesn’t close the issue. This is likely to only reinforce prejudice for some time, although it does provide a case to be answered. So far the answers haven’t been that clear either.